运用PLS算法由HJ-1A/1B遥感影像估测区域小麦实际单产

为进一步提高遥感估产精度,显示国产影像在农业估产中的应用效果。该研究以2010-2013年HJ-1A/1B影像为遥感数据,分析了卫星遥感变量与小麦实际单产的定量关系,运用偏最小二乘回归算法构建及验证了以实际单产为目标的多变量遥感估产模型,并制作了小麦实际单产空间等级分布图。研究表明:实际单产与所选用的大多数遥感变量间关系密切,且多数遥感变量两两间具有严重的多重相关关系;实际单产偏最小二乘回归模型的最佳主成分为5,且植被衰减指数、绿色归一化植被指数、调整土壤亮度的植被指数、比值植被指数和归一化植被指数为实际单产遥感估测的敏感变量;建模集和验证集实际单产估测模型的决定系数分别为0.74和0.70,均方根误差分别为754.05和748.20 kg/hm2,相对误差分别为11.5%和8.88%,且估测精度比线性回归算法分别提高20%以上和40%以上,比主成分分析算法分别提高18%以上和30%以上,说明偏最小二乘回归算法模型估测区域实际单产的效果要明显好于线性回归和主成分分析算法,该模型应用结果与小麦实际单产区域分布情况相符合,为提高区域小麦实际单产的遥感估测精度提供了一种途径。     

数字高程模型和多时相MODIS数据复合的水稻种植面积遥感估算方法研究

随着搭载在TERRA卫星上的中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的出现,它以数据丰富、时间分辨率高和覆盖范围广等特点，为水稻遥感估产提供了较好的数据源。该文利用水稻种植易受坡度影响的特性，从数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Models简称DEM)中提取坡度信息，考虑到MODIS能提供多时相及丰富的数据，采用DEM产生的坡度和两个时相MODIS影像数据及植被指数复合提取水稻种植面积，经过比较试验证明，在南方丘陵山区的复杂地形区域,多源信息复合相对于单纯利用单景影像数据可以明显提高水稻种植面积估算的精度。     

近150年北京春季物候对气候变化的响应

对北京春季6种物候的计算得出其代表性指标一山桃始花期，并分析物候对气温变化的响应模式。根据气温变化态势，将历史时期气温和物候资料划分为4个时间段，并采用u检验论证时间段间具有显著性差异，分析物候期对气温变化的响应模式和机制，得出：物候期的提前与推迟对温度的增高与降低的响应是非线性的，在同等增、降温幅度下，因降温而导致的物候期推迟幅度较因增温而导致物候期提前幅度小；平均气温增高1℃，北京春季物候期提前2．8—3．6d。并估算了未来北京春季物候变化趋势。     

基于模糊集理论提取土壤—地形定量关系及制图应用

通过对研究区地形因子的模糊聚类,提取了地形因子组合与特定土壤属性的定量隶属度关系,然后对隶属度高值区土壤进行目的性采样为隶属度函数赋值,制作研究区土层厚度连续分布图。通过野外实地验证,将观测值与图中预测值比较,结果显示该方法制图精度在82%左右,具有一定的可靠性。进一步考察认为该模型在地形部位较低,地势较为平坦,土壤发育较好,土层较厚,成土环境相对稳定的地区预测效果更好,适用性更强。该方法能提高土壤制图效率,降低制图成本,提高制图精度,对土壤微域变异的表现更为详细,图面信息负载量更高。应用该方法制作大比例尺土壤详图不失为土壤调查与制图领域一种可行的新方法。     

基于TM影像的升金湖湿地生态安全研究

[目的]分析安徽省升金湖湿地景观格局动态变化过程,建立升金湖湿地生态安全(PSR)模型,并探讨其驱动力,为进一步开展升金湖湿地保护及其恢复研究提供科学依据。[方法]在遥感和GIS技术支持下,用1986,2003,2011年的3期TM影像为基本信息源进行分析。[结果]景观格局变化幅度较大,草地和水域面积减幅较显著;多样性指数呈上升趋势而优势度指数呈下降趋势,破碎化程度加剧,斑块类型呈多样性发展;随着景观破碎化程度增强,斑块数增加,将造成湿地生态系统片断化越严重,也会影响到湿地的调蓄能力,改变整个湿地的水文情势,减弱湿地的生态效益;另外,景观格局变化下的湿地生态安全指数趋于逐年下降状态,湿地生态安全形式处于预警状态,形势不容乐观。[结论]近年来,随着经济的发展,人口数量的增加,围垦等活动的加剧,人类活动对研究区的改造导致了自然湿地面积相对减少,升金湖湿地生态功能不断下降,经济增长和人口增长成为湿地格局变化主要驱动力。     

牛栏江流域上游保护区“四型”小流域水土流失治理模式

[目的]分析牛栏江流域上游保护区水土流失治理模式,以期为流域水土流失治理提供新的思路。[方法]基于DEM数据在ArcGIS内进行子流域自动提取,结合遥感影像进行人工交互解译、修正以确定子流域;以划分的子流域为基本单元进行定性与定量赋分并计算综合得分,依据综合得分确定流域水土保持分区及其主导功能;根据确定的水土保持分区主导功能进行“四型”小流域治理模式配置。[结果]牛栏江流域上游保护区共划分9个子流域,确定4个水土保持分区;在各水土保持分区分别构建以生态安全型、生态景观型、生态经济型和生态清洁型为主的“四型”小流域治理模式。[结论]子流域可作为牛栏江流域上游保护区“四型”小流域水土流失治理模式配置的基本单元,水土保持主导功能可作为“四型”小流域模式配置的依据,提供因型施策、精准至区的水土流失科学治理模式。     

An analysis of wet deposition of sulfate using a trajectory model for East Asia

A long-range transport model for East Asia was developed to estimate the wet deposition of sulfate. The model is a trajectory type which is appropriate for long-term analysis. Trajectories of air masses are calculated by tracing the wind field which changes spatially and temporally. The processes of reactions, rainout removal, intake of sulfate in cloud water into rain water, and dry and wet depositions are considered. It is possible to calculate the concentration of sulfate in precipitation at a receptor by performing material balance in a grid box containing the receptor.The results obtained by the long-range transport model were evaluated through comparison with observation data of acidic deposition. The observation was conducted at 21 stations throughout Japan for one year. The calculated amount of wet deposition of sulfate in Japan was 0.22Tg/y in S equivalent, while the observed amount was 0.29Tg/y. The long-range transport model can predict almost 80% of observed wet deposition. The contributions of domestic anthropogenic sources and volcanic eruption to wet deposition of sulfate in Japan were estimated using the longrange transport model. The ratio of the deposition of sulfate due to Japanese anthropogenic sources to that due to the Asian continental sources was about 1 to 2. Since air stream from the direction of the Asian continent dominates during winter, the contribution of Japan to wet deposition in the region which faces the Sea of Japan amounted to less than 15%. The contribution of the sulfur oxides from volcanoes was about 20%.     

滦河流域生态系统健康评价研究

总结了国内外对流域生态系统进行健康评价的实践,以生态系统健康理论和“压力—状态—响应”模型为基础,构建了滦河流域(内蒙古山区部分)的生态系统健康评价指标体系。采用层次分析法进行的综合评价结果表明:滦河流域生态环境健康状态得分为0.82,健康指数为0.48。滦河流域应加强水土保持,减少土壤侵蚀;加大围栏育草、禁牧、休牧、轮牧等力度,治理沙化草场,恢复植被;降低单位面积农药施用量,以减少流域非点源污染;减少对流域内湿地的围垦和破坏;有计划地恢复河滨湿地生态系统,促进河流生态功能恢复。     

Modelling human impacts on the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle (Aquila audax fleayi)

The wedge-tailed eagle is Australia’s largest bird of prey and one of the largest eagles in the world. Aquila audax fleayi is an endemic Tasmanian subspecies isolated for 10,000 years from the nominate subspecies on the Australian mainland. The Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle is classified nationally and at a State level as endangered due to its small number of breeding pairs, low breeding success and high rate of mortality from unnatural causes. The subspecies experiences mortality throughout its range from shooting, poisoning, trapping, road accidents, electrocutions and collisions with wind turbines, aircraft, fences and overhead wires, which we term ‘un-natural mortality’. A portion of the subspecies’ range is managed for timber production, which can lead to disturbance of nest sites and the loss of nest trees. We use a model of the eagle population from the Bass District in northeast Tasmania to explore the relative importance of different sources of mortality and nesting habitat loss, and the potential for mitigating impacts associated with unnatural mortality, disturbance, nesting habitat loss and human access to forests. We create a habitat map including suitable nest sites and link it to a dynamic landscape population model based on life history traits and disturbance responses. Using the program RAMAS-Landscape, we model alternative forest management scenarios, ranging from no timber harvesting and a natural wildfire regime, to scenarios prescribing native forest harvesting and regeneration and different levels of conversion of native forest to plantation under the same natural wildfire regime. The results indicate that the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle is sensitive to unnatural mortality, plantation establishment and native forest harvesting. The predicted decline over the next 160 years (65%) will most likely be driven largely by loss of current and potential future nest sites associated with harvesting activities, exacerbated by unnatural mortality in the wider landscape. Interventions that minimise unnatural mortality, reduce nest disturbance, and retain breeding habitat and nest sites may improve the prospects for the subspecies in the Bass District. If nest disturbance and unnatural mortality continue at the rates modelled here, the species appears to face a high risk of declining substantially in the region.     

黑龙江省马铃薯气候生产力特征及区划

利用黑龙江省81个气象站1975-2004年30 a的逐日气象资料及相应插值的网格同期逐日气象资料,采用WOFOST作物生长模型,模拟并分析了马铃薯气候生产力的空间分布特征,同时分析了各地气候生产力影响因素及分布特征;利用气候生产力的距平百分率、变异系数及与气候生产力密切相关的有关生育期的4个气候因子(平均气温、气温日较差、日平均日照时数、降水量),采用动态聚类分析方法,将黑龙江省马铃薯可能种植区初步划分为9类气候栽培区,为充分利用当地气候资源发展马铃薯生产提供参考。